As the prospect of a Sinn F\u00e9in led government forming in the near future becomes more realistic, pressure on the party grows. If Mary Lou McDonald becomes the next Taoiseach \u2013 as polls indicate she will \u2013 she\u2019s going to be faced with an endless number of challenges to overcome.<\/p>\n
McDonald and the other front bench TDs give the impression that they understand the enormity of what must be done in terms of housing, health and many other areas \u2013 but they mightn\u2019t realise that if they fail in government, be it because of incompetence or backtracking on their traditional \u2018socialist\u2019 policies, they could be opening the door for the far-right to grow exponentially here.<\/p>\n
Austerity and other neoliberal policies imposed by successive Fianna F\u00e1il and Fine Gael governments, regularly propped up by Labour and the Greens, have left the country in a disastrous state. We have a crumbling healthcare system, inadequate public transport and the worst housing crisis the state has ever seen.<\/p>\n
These mammoth tasks are seemingly impossible for any government to fix in just one term, something McDonald herself has already started to admit, but it\u2019s likely that she and her republican colleagues are only going to get one chance \u2013 and a lot more rides on it going well than most people realise.<\/p>\n
Global politics is changing. We only have to look at our neighbours in Britain to see the grip that the far-right has over their parliament. In their next election, Britons will have to choose between a Conservative party that moves further right every week and a Labour party that has seemingly abandoned any real left-wing principles to appear electable to centrist voters.<\/p>\n
People across the world are unhappy with politicians and the poor standard of living created by them, so they\u2019re starting to turn away from the moderate approach that sounds promising on the surface but fails to deliver any change \u2013 an ideology that figures like Barrack Obama and the Clintons embodied in the States.<\/p>\n
While most of the world has turned right, the Irish electorate have, for the most part, turned left. This is partly because Sinn F\u00e9in has acted as a strong voice for the dissatisfied public during their time as the main opposition party and given voters a solid alternative to centre-right politics.<\/p>\n
While other left-wing parties like People Before Profit-Solidarity and the Social Democrats saw boosts in the 2020 election, they\u2019ve failed to make any notable gains since then and this plateau will likely lead to them losing seats to Sinn F\u00e9in in the next election as their popularity continues to reach record highs.<\/p>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in have never been in government in the South. If they\u2019re elected it\u2019ll be because of promises they\u2019ve made, not a proven track record \u2013 if they don\u2019t deliver change quickly their newfound support won\u2019t be long falling apart.<\/p>\n
When Labour won a staggering 37 seats in the 2011 election, it was on the promise of implementing social democratic policies which many believed were badly needed after the Fianna F\u00e1il and Green Party coalition brought the economy to its knees, but after five years of introducing austerity measures alongside Fine Gael they returned a disastrous seven TDs in 2016, while Fine Gael held on to enough seats to form another government.<\/p>\n
Voters don\u2019t expect Fianna F\u00e1il or Fine Gael to bring about any major changes, they maintain the status quo and the majority of people who vote for them are happy with that. Support for both parties is also engrained so deeply in Irish society that regardless of how miserably they fail in government, they\u2019ll always bounce back in two or three election cycles time.<\/p>\n
Alternatively, if a left-wing party is voted into government and they don\u2019t live up to their manifesto, voters will turn their backs on them.<\/p>\n
Widespread support for Sinn F\u00e9in is a new phenomenon and isn\u2019t a sure bet going forward; many people who voted for them in 2020 were doing so for the first time, and as their polling numbers continue to increase it\u2019s clear many more people are turning to them for the first time as well \u2013 if they don\u2019t deliver, they\u2019ll face the same fate as Labour.<\/p>\n
The difference between politics today and ten years ago, when Labour struck out in government, is that the far-right is starting to gain more momentum in Ireland after using the pandemic and the influx of refugees to drum up fear.<\/p>\n
The left has been proactive enough in opposition to stop most unhappy voters from moving right \u2013 but if they can\u2019t deliver on what they\u2019re promising, this could all change.<\/p>\n
Many people in Ireland feel as though a century of the two establishment parties in government has failed them and those people are looking for a new ideology. Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s strong presence in opposition has made it easy for people to turn to them, but if they fail to implement their left-wing policies properly, vulnerable people will see little other choice but to turn right, an opportunity that extreme conservatives are waiting to seize.<\/p>\n